American Strategy 2025: Replacement, Nationalism and Interference

The original article was published in Portuguese in Expresso on 16 December 2025: https://expresso.pt/opiniao/2025-12-16-estrategia-americana-2025-substituicao-nacionalismo-e-interferencia-4ef8f3bb-1

The text frames EU democracies as fragile, our leaders as illegitimate and our commitment to Ukraine as misguided. The accusations are so serious that they deserve to be shown in full:

“The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition.”
 [Translation: The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials, who have unrealistic expectations regarding the war, and are in unstable minority governments, many of which violate basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition.]

This isn’t a mere jab to European leadership, it’s a pretext. By undermining the legitimacy of the pro-Ukraine coalition, it prepares the ground for another step disguised as strategic common sense: pushing Europe to accept a settlement on Russia’s terms.

Further the report continues that the U.S. should focus on “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” If Moscow had said this, no one would be surprised. In fact, Putin  stated as much in the Munich speech of 2007. Yet it is not Moscow talking, it is Washington.

The same pages of the report offer warm praise to far-right forces: “America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism.”

This is a ringing endorsement for parties like Chega in Portugal and their peers elsewhere, parties that have spent years corroding our democratic institutions and promoting outlandish conspiracy theories.

The most concerning part, however, is a not-so-subtle promotion of the Replacement Theory: “Within a few decades… certain NATO members will become majority non-European.”

This is a completely invented scenario circulating among the far-right. A theory in between quotation marks. And yet, it comes with an American seal strongly suggesting that our own  European citizens, if they look different, are untrustworthy. This is racist, pure and simple.

Finally, the document calls for:“Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.” Plainly stated: fostering internal opposition to the European Union within member states. This is an active political subversion of our democracies, sanctioned at the highest level.

Europe cannot react again with vague statements asking for “more dialogue.” The world is changing rapidly, yet we continue to act as if the U.S. is always the adult in the room. These are old reflexes of transatlantic loyalty which are rapidly becoming dangerous.

We must learn to live in a world where the U.S. is drifting toward ideological alignment with autocracies like China and Russia. On what grounds? They share a belief in spheres of influence, legitimizing domination over smaller surrounding countries. Most worryingly, they believe in rewriting history through military power. 

We saw this with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And now the US is mirroring it with unlawful aggressive actions against Venezuela. We hold no sympathy for the corrupt and undemocratic Maduro government in Venezuela, however unlawful aggression will only produce another Libya or Syria scenario, not democracy. Real problems like corruption, drugs and instability are becoming a mere tool to justify aggressive behaviour. 

If that was not enough, Washington is drafting the script for our own future. Enough. We must leave behind reliance on “Daddy” America for defense, grow up and become the adults in the room in a world increasingly dominated by imperialist rhetoric. This means we need a European Union capable of acting as one: a Union with a democratically elected government, common debt to finance security, a real shared defense capability, unified foreign policy to protect citizens and values and the political courage to stand on our own.

The numbers are there. Europe’s productivity lags the U.S. by over 30% in GDP per capita terms, largely due to underinvestment in key sectors (see Draghi Report). Defence spending is fractured, with 12 tank models in use across member states compared to one in the U.S. Innovation suffers from red tape and fragmented markets. While Europe has talented researchers, capital and scale often vanish across the Atlantic.

We can no longer pretend to be surprised by these patterns. We know what the obstacles are: lack of focus, duplicated national efforts, endless vetoes. The solution is not more diagnosis. It is action. Europe must invest in its own defence industrial base, jointly procure and close the energy price gap by becoming serious on renewables. We have the population, the savings, the talent. What we need is political courage.

The alternative is clear. Remain fragmented, and we will be manipulated, outpaced and strategically sidelined. The best case scenario? To be trampled over by Trumpism. It is time for Europe to become an actor, or it could continue avoiding making strategic choices and transform into a target.

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