COP Out - UN conference fails to achieve global commitment to fighting climate change

The United Nations Climate Change Conference 29, held in Baku, has failed to produce the global commitment to decarbonisation and sustainable finance that would do the climate crisis justice. Instead of being driven by the sense of emergency that human-made climate breakdown requires, COP 29 was mainly in the news for its host, who misused the conference for fossil fuel deals, and for oil and gas producing countries obstructing any meaningful progress on transition away from fossil fuel dependency.

In the void of blatantly weak Azerbaijani leadership, the gap between the objective needs of developing countries and the will of industrialised countries to commit the necessary funds for sustainable climate financing was only bridged by a last-minute agreement that represents a minimal step towards a working global climate finance framework.

In the end, industrialised countries, including the EU, committed to $300bn per year in climate finance, dedicated to supporting developing and emerging countries to transition to clean energy and decarbonisation. This is a sum far below the estimates deemed to be necessary. Faced with the re-election of Donald Trump, who has already announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Accords, and citing budgetary constraints with public finances stressed by inflation and low economic growth, industrialised nations were not willing to meet the needs of the Global South. This is, from Volt’s perspective, a mistake. Whatever our own domestic challenges, the EU could and must do more.

The EU can claim to have achieved some progress on decarbonisation in the last few years, with carbon dioxide emissions down by 8% in 2023. Nevermind that the EU’s progress is insufficient in the light of its own goals; if it fails to contribute substantially to global decarbonisation and sustainable climate financing for low income countries, successful decarbonisation in the EU will be outweighed by growing emissions elsewhere, as highlighted by a new record in global carbon dioxide emissions this year.

Investing in decarbonisation and clean industries in the Global South is a means of safeguarding European societies from the spiralling costs of climate breakdown, estimated to have been €162bn between 2021 and 2023. The EU has not only historic responsibilities as one of the biggest historic greenhouse emitters, it has responsibilities towards its own citizens to work towards a liveable future for coming generations. Ambitious global climate financing must therefore be a cornerstone of EU development policies.

Despite the unsatisfying outcome and irresponsible conference conduct of an autocratic government that relies on fossil fuels for 90% of its revenue, COPs are needed as a forum for multilateralism and global coordination to fight the climate crisis. Their effect should not be underestimated. While global climate action is far from sufficient to achieve the Paris goals of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (indeed, 2024 may already have shattered this target), the policies agreed upon and connected to the Paris climate accords are estimated to have spared the Earth 0.9°C of heating already. Given the uncertainty in understanding and predicting climate tipping points, every greenhouse gas molecule not emitted counts towards mitigating the catastrophe that already wrecks lives and livelihoods across the globe.

If anything, this year’s conference has demonstrated one thing: COPs need reform. A good start would be to establish and enforce stricter rules on fossil fuel lobbying and clearer procedural rules that prevent hosting countries from misusing the conference  for their own agenda. COPs are one of the few occasions island nations and developing countries find a stage. These important voices must not be drowned out by those invested in an unsustainable status quo. In this sense, we call on the EU to strengthen climate multilateralism and work towards a reform of COPs that facilitates the progress we all need. Because in the end, climate breakdown will be prevented within global frameworks – or not at all.