Returning peace to Europe is our responsibility

Meanwhile, Europeans need to be willing to defend Ukraine in the same way as they would defend each other. The alternative is a Ukraine subjugated by an imperialist Russia whose goal remains to dismantle the EU. Ceasefires and peace don’t arrive on their own; their conditions have to be created. Putin won’t stop unless we make him.  He must be forced to the negotiation table, and Russia must not be allowed to invade Ukraine again. The recipe for creating a ceasefire is clear: strong pressure on Putin, including a no-fly zone in Western Ukraine. Keeping the peace will require EU membership for Ukraine backed by real security guarantees on the ground. Only if those conditions are met, can proper negotiations lead to a just and sustainable peace. 

1. Act now to bring peace closer with a European no-fly zone over Western Ukraine

Russia has already attacked the EU multiple times:  it has sabotaged undersea cables; blown up ammunition factories; planned assassinations and sponsored terrorist attacks; it bombed the EU embassy in Kyiv, hacked Von der Leyen's plane; it violated Polish, Romanian, Estonian, Danish and Norwegian airspace with drones and planes. Ukrainians are no longer the only Europeans hearing air raid sirens. Each time we fail to respond, Russia escalates. 

So far, we have been far too risk averse. By waiting for Putin to escalate rather than setting our own terms, we have brought the war closer to our doorstep. A strong, united Europe with a common foreign policy could have created one strategy to end the war. Europe, including its candidate countries, is an innovative democracy of 500 million citizens and a GDP of 20 trillion. Russia is a stagnant autocracy of 140 million citizens and a GDP of 2 trillion. On paper, we have all the tools to take charge of our continent’s security. But building a Federal Europe will take time. So what can we do today?

The best way to keep Russia away from our doorstep is to establish a forward deterrence: with at its core a no-fly zone in Western Ukraine, to shoot down projectiles that come close to NATO airspace. This will achieve two objectives: it will protect Ukrainians as well as other Europeans from Russian threats, and it will make Putin understand that Europe is willing to defend itself (and Ukraine) with real force.  Such a European-led Integrated Air Protection Zone (IAPZ) is completely within our power, and a clear, workable plan has been proposed by military experts. With just 120 fighter jets we can keep our airspace safe while strengthening Ukraine’s own air defence. They can operate from air bases in Poland and Romania, lowering escalation risk. Russian aircraft do not operate over Western Ukraine and are more than 200km away, so the risk of a direct clash between air forces is low. The EU and UK have enough air assets to do this on their own, without the US. The lack of a no-fly zone  emboldens Russia to continue its destruction of Ukraine and directly attack NATO member states. A no-fly zone will give us the initiative and change Putin’s calculus. It is the lowest risk, highest impact measure European allies can take now to shorten the war by demonstrating to Russia that it cannot win by outlasting Ukraine and Europe.

At the same time, we need to strengthen Europe’s own Eastern Flank against Russian incursions. NATO’s operation ‘’Eastern Sentry’’ was set up quickly after the Russian drone incursions, and this is a good first step. But in order to restore deterrence, we need clear rules of engagement and make the Russians understand that red lines will be enforced. The incursions also showed that NATO militaries need to rapidly adapt to new realities of war. Using expensive missiles against Iranian drones is very cost inefficient. To counter cheap drones, we need cheap counter-drone measures. The ‘’drone wall’’ announced by Von Der Leyen to monitor the Eastern Flank, as well as more intensive industrial cooperation with Ukraine, are key to building the European capabilities that will mitigate Russian advantages.

2. Get ready to defend the peace with a European Reassurance Force

In 1994 Ukraine gave away its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees from the USA, UK and Russia. 20 years later, the Russians invaded and annexed Crimea. Another 8 years later, they launched a full-scale invasion. History shows that Russia cannot be trusted to hold its word. Even after an end to this war is agreed, we will not be able to defend the peace with assurances that only exist on paper.

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, we should have started building a European army, like the majority of Europeans want. Had we done so, we would have had a force capable of defending Ukraine and ensuring a ceasefire. Instead, 26 countries have spent months discussing who is willing to provide pieces of the puzzle to something that could look serious enough to deter Putin. It is a weaker alternative, but it's what we have to work with.

This ‘’coalition of the willing’’ intends to send troops after a truce with Russia is reached. It is still a good signal that Europe wants to take responsibility for its own security. It can increase the pressure on Putin, keep the US engaged in Europe, and ensure that we have a plan ready on day one after a ceasefire. But it requires three basic preconditions:

• Europe must have the capabilities to be able to deliver such a “reassurance force”

• It must be willing and able to carry out this mission if the US does not participate, and

• The public must be able to accept that it will come with serious risks to our soldiers

Various Experts and officials have shown that all of this is possible with Europe in the lead, but it will require politicians to communicate very clearly to citizens that our own security is only guaranteed if we are willing to defend Ukraine. There are small, medium and large-scale options available. The larger the force, the stronger the deterrence signal, but the harder to carry out and sustain independently from the US, without compromising Europe’s defences on its own borders with Russia. For some key intelligence, command and logistics capabilities, the EU has gaps, and the US should optimally be on board to fill them. It will not be easy if the US only provides limited to no support, but for a small to medium sized mission, it can be done. In fact, if the EU shows the readiness to take up the task, the US may be more likely to provide at least important ‘’enabling’’ support in the aforementioned domains. Finally, Europe has its own ultimate ‘’backstop’’: the French and British nuclear deterrent.

Any reassurance force should be able to accomplish five main elements:

• Relieve Ukrainians from rear-area and non-combat tasks to free up Ukrainian forces for the contact line, e.g. through maintenance, training and non-frontline border patrol

• Deploy an air (>200 combat aircraft) and sea contingent strong enough to keep Ukraine’s skies and shipping lanes open, for both civilian and military purposes

• Deploy adequate ground forces (>25,000), stationed some distance away from the main line of contact, which can rapidly intervene against a local Russian breakthrough

• Pre-position on the EU’s Eastern flank (e.g. on the Polish/Romanian borders) follow-up forces capable of rapidly reinforcing the European force in Ukraine if required

• Build a Ukrainian military strong enough to deter Russia from ever attacking again, including by long-range strike capabilities, so called ‘’deterrence by punishment’’ 

Conclusion: defending Europe as a peace project

Planning security guarantees should not be an alternative to ultimately enabling Ukraine to restore its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Any ceasefire should be the result of negotiations fully endorsed by Ukraine. Volt has always argued that we must end this war as soon as possible and prevent it from ever restarting.  We can achieve this by sending Putin a clear message that he won’t gain anything from continuing the war or restarting it later. A no-fly zone and preparing a credible reassurance force in Ukraine are the tools to make that clear, before negotiations lead to a ceasefire and ultimately, a just peace. Those operations can take place with limited involvement by the United States, if need be.

A no-fly zone and reassurance force must of course be part of a broader theory of victory including stronger sanctions on Russia, seizing frozen Russian assets, and scaling up defence production. Creating a European Defence Union, as a European pillar in NATO, with a European Army at its core and with Ukraine firmly inside the EU, remains the long-term goal.

You can find our positions on those topics in previous statements. Ultimately, Europe is a peace project. To protect that peace and all human rights, we need to be willing to defend it. This is the only way our vision for a green, just and social future in a united Europe can become reality, instead of becoming the victim of Russian imperialism.